The Problem
When you have C FLOPs of training compute and want the best model, you face two knobs:
- How many parameters (N)? Bigger model, higher capacity.
- How many training tokens (D)? More data, better use of capacity.
FLOPs scale approximately as 6 × N × D. You can push N up and D down, or D up and N down. Which is better?
Before 2022, the answer was "push N hard." GPT-3 (2020) was 175B parameters trained on ~300B tokens. A ratio of about 1.7 tokens per parameter. The Kaplan scaling laws backed this up.
Hoffmann et al. (2022), training a small family of models called Chinchilla, found something different: optimal ratio is closer to 20 tokens per parameter. GPT-3 was 10× undertrained. Chinchilla (70B params, 1.4T tokens) beat GPT-3 (175B, 300B tokens) on every benchmark at 2.5× less inference cost.
2026 is Chinchilla's world — with one important twist. Llama 3 8B was trained on 15 trillion tokens, a ratio of 1,875 tokens per parameter. Ninety-four times past Chinchilla-optimal. Inference cost matters more than training cost for models that will be used at scale, so over-training (past Chinchilla) for a smaller deployable footprint is the 2026 default.
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